You can't time the market, but you can do this
I often get two types of questions from aspiring or new developers about “timing.”
You, my friend, have heard me talk quite a bit about how multifamily development is ALL about timing—that building involves doing specific things in a VERY specific order so that you’re not wasting obscene amounts of time and money.
Folks want to know when to hire a general contractor or when to order windows, or when and if they need a Phase II. Sometimes, these questions are hard to answer since I’m not running their build, and they don’t have all the necessary information. Sometimes, things are running along smoothly, and I give them strategies for staying on track. Sometimes, they’ve done things out of order, and I’m giving them advice on how to unwind a misstep. I’m always, ALWAYS asking them if they’re following this newsletter closely. (And from here on out, I’ll, of course, be recommending my master class.) ←Yes, that was a shameless plug.
At any rate, those are questions about the process from folks who’ve taken the first step in their developer journey.
The other type of question I get about timing is from folks who are trying to “time” opportunity. This group is always searching for the “ideal” time or conditions but keeps postponing their developer journey, awaiting the elusive "perfect" moment. They imagine that being a developer is all about spending time on the job site, hunched over an engineer’s drawings, and then squinting romantically off into the sunset. And when I talk to them on the phone or at meet-ups they often aren’t doing the things that will allow them that moment in the near future where they COULD stand on that job site.
Mostly, I’m talking about education.
More specifically, I’m talking about learning about development and then testing that learning. This is where so, SO much of your time should be spent. It’s definitely where I’ve spent an enormous amount of my time.
The truth is that there will never be a perfect time to be a developer. Will you one day get that bonus that allows you to acquire that land for your ten-unit? Sure, maybe. In fact, I’m a relentlessly optimistic person, so let’s just say probably. You probably will get that bonus, but you’ll miss that opportunity down the street for a similar piece of land that you could have put under contract for half the price. You missed the opportunity because you were trying to “time” the opportunity.
And while YOU can wait for the right opportunity, opportunity will never wait for you.
How do you recognize opportunity?
Education.
I’m not talking about the type of static education that you get from cracking a book. I’m talking about learning that tests your understanding.
So, let me contrast the previous scenario with a different one.
Let’s say you don’t wait for that bonus. You keep working for that bonus, of course, but in the meantime, you take a different route home every day from work, walking, driving, cycling, it doesn’t matter. Along this route, you find a small corner with a run-down store. If you’ve taken my class, you know all of the steps to take before spending a dime to test the feasibility of that site. You find out the site doesn’t work; the zoning is off.
Okay. No big deal.
You find another site and run through the same process again, this time remembering that you forgot to test the neighborhood against the various criteria I’ve laid out in previous newsletters. Neighborhood looks good. Zoning looks good. And while you’ve been getting closer and closer to that bonus, you’ve learned, practiced, and repeated a whole bunch of crucial steps aspiring developers take to create opportunity (rather than wait for it).
Fast forward nine months, and while you were testing feasibility on all kinds of sites across your dreamland, that bonus came in. And your math added up on one site in particular.
It was an ugly duckling, but after you ran the math, talked to the owner, and did fifty-nine other things I’ve taught you, that trash-strewn double lot feels like a SWAN. Hiding in plain sight.
Only the opportunity is clear to you and not your competition.
You weren’t waiting for an opportunity; you were learning, and in that learning, you created opportunity.
So what are you waiting for?
Take a class with me. Start out with the feasibility masterclass if you like. Or sign up for the Accelerator masterclass and spend some time 1-1 mentorship time with me.
Nervous about the investment? I get it. The classes are not cheap. But they are an infinitesimally small part of a multifamily development budget. A rounding error, really.
Still can’t afford it? Every one of the ninety thousand words I’ve written in the last year is free.
Read them!
When you are ready for the masterclass, come back in a year when we offer it again.
But should you delay?
Probably not.
There is no “right” time.
There’s just the opportunity you create.
Peace,
You probably found me through Twitter, but if not, make sure you’re following me on social media.
X: seandsweeney